For those Australians amongst us

Did Van Stran want to change his name to Bree or was that something we did?

And Liberals to win but with a reduced minority. Expect to see a swing against them of up to 5% or more in some seats but keep in mind, the current polls show Howard losing his own seat. No PM has ever had that happen (except one I think) and it's fairly unlikely. I think what you're seeing in the polls now is just a lot of voter disatisfaction rather than a big move to change. Climate Change will hit hard as Labor always wins on Environment and IR issues. You'll see a lot of ads and focus from the Liberals on the Economy.

Interest Rates will be a huge issue, especially if the Reserve Bank ups them again (and puts them back to the level they were when Howard first came into power back in '96). Very strong employment figures though and Inflation relatively under control for the most part. Those are the big three to watch.

Depending on how the Liberals handle IR as to whether that plays much of a part. Info that came out today shows that for the first time in Australia, Union membership is down to something like 15% of the working population. Considering it used to be 30% and higher at one stage (about 10 years ago I think), it shows that Unions play less of a role, despite their high media coverage.

Rudd is still in his honeymoon period but it's starting to end. The whole Brian Burke affair didn't do anyone any favours because in the end, no-one wins the credibility and integrity in politics debate. It'll be issues and policy where Rudd will sink or swim and we won't see the really big moves on that for another few months yet.

People know Howard and know what he will and won't do (at least, they believe they do). That works against him as much as it works for him. Rudd however, is still a relative unknown. There's been nothing big from Labour except their Broadband policy and there are some real questions as to whether they can do what they say with the small amount of money they reckon it'll cost.

The Budget is getting handed down in about four weeks time too. That's when it becomes game on. At the moment, a lot of the issues are "left-based" where Labor will win (Hicks, Climate, Water etc...). The Liberals made a mistake by not going hard-right against Hicks ("lock him up for 15 years, he's a terrorist etc...") and instead tried to move left into ground we were never going to win (everyone who's complaining about Hicks has never voted Liberal anyway, so there's no votes gained by caving into them because those people wouldn't vote for Howard even if he made Hicks the King of England).

Iraq war will be interesting. Expect Rudd to be painted as "nothing different" as he's not really advocating a troop pull-out. Most of the troops he's pulling out are doing "construction" type work re-building communities. Rudd still plans to leave those guarding the embassy there which is in the green zone, which is in Baghdad, which is where all the problems are anyway. At the moment, Labor has more money (Labor always has more money to fight election campaigns) hence the ads pushing broadband and Rudd's Australia Day TV spot.

Most voters don't watch TV during Australia Day and don't care about 90% of issues beyond "what's in it for me". That's where the Liberal party excels at the moment. Also, the fear factor of coast-to-coast Labor governments will play a large role too (or at least, the Liberals will try and push it that way). So Howard to win, he'll resign in 2 years and someone other than Costello will replace him.

 

Yes. "We" did it.

 

Yes, it has, a personality that no one likes.

 

Like a swastika.

 

I decided that Rudd was a moron the very second he announced he wanted to use the Future Fund to update infrastructure. Anyone stupid enough to try and crack open a fund the government started to make up for super annuation shortfalls is going to put us in the same position Hawke did, $90 billion of debt and nothing to show for it.

I wouldn't consider myself a Liberals supporter, I'm a Nationals voter but that makes me a Liberals supporter by default I suppose. But as far as I'm concerned Howard has done his job well. Howard has been Prime Minister since shortly before my 10th birthday and in that time his government has wiped out the national debt, negotiated a free trade agreement with the US (yes I know it has its flaws), held a referendum that thankfully failed so the daimed Republicans would shut up for a while (I'm a Monarchist) and has done their best to ignore David Hicks in the hope he'd fade away since as far as I'm concerned the guy is a terrorist. Whereas a little reading on Hawke and Keating shows nothing but disunity and debt; Labor's policies are all designed around short term gain they placate the voteres of today at their childrens expense, the Liberals are the ones who plan for the long term.

And if you really want a reason to hate Labor, back when Beazley was te Minister of Defence he approved the purchase of the Collins Class submarines that have helped make our navy next to useless. Whats the point in a sub that you can practically hear by ear when its submerged?